Which is it? Elbows up or pass them the puck on their powerplay

Considering the US president’s threats it would be “irresponsible” of Ottawa not to prepare for a US attack. But it’s far more “irresponsible” to boost an annexationist country’s military and belligerence if you were serious about the possibility of invasion.

In a recent New York Times interview Prime Minister Carney said his government has examined the possibility of a military attack by the US. While Carney described an invasion as an “extreme tail risk”, he suggested it would be “irresponsible not to [prepare].” While some say the Times exaggerated Carney’s words, the PM knew his comment, which is likely true, would generate attention. The PM probably did so to bolster his domestic “elbows up” posture and to hurt Republicans in the upcoming midterm elections. In a sign of the politics, Trump responded by claiming he’d done “more than anyone” to protect Canada from threats (despite his bombastic threats across the globe, Trump has explicitly rejected annexing Canada by force)

For many decades US military planners had detailed plans to invade. Ostensibly for a war with Britain, Canada War Plan Red included abolishing the Canadian government and holding territory “in perpetuity”. A 1928 draft of the plan added, “it should be made quite clear to Canada that in a war she would suffer grievously.” The invasion plans, which were approved by the secretary of war and secretary of navy, remained current until World War II.

In Cautious Beginnings: Canadian Foreign Intelligence 1939 – 1951 Kurt Jensen notes, “the primary preoccupation of military intelligence and planning was response to an attack by the United States.” The 1921 Canadian Defence Scheme One was an elaborate plan to defend against US invasion.

Revising some variation of Defence Scheme One seems sensible in response to Trump’s threats. But preparing/deterring an attack should include many other steps.

Would a government worried about a US invasion support Trump’s international belligerence? On Tuesday the prime minister explicitly justified the US president’s unhinged genocidal threats on Iran and Carney previously backed the US/Israeli attack on that country. He also “welcomed” the US kidnapping of Venezuela’s president and has largely ignored US violence from Somalia to Nigeria.

At the same time as Carney’s statements have bolstering Trump’s violence, the Canadian military has continued to send hundreds of soldiers to participate in US-led international training exercises and joint naval missions as well as soldiers on US exchanges. Instead of suspending hundreds of bilateral military accords with the US, Chief of the Defence Staff, Jennie Carignan, travelled to Washington, D.C., in February to deepen ties. At the Farnborough Airshow two months ago McGinty told reporters, “On the security and intelligence and defence front, from our perspective, there’s really little daylight [with the US]. We continue to work together continentally. We work domestically and we work internationally at the NATO level.”

If you were truly concerned about an invasion, it might be wise to bring Canadian troops home. Has that happened?

At the time of the US/Israeli attack on Iran there were 200 troops at a base in Kuwait and others across West Asia. There are also Canadian troops stationed at small bases in Jamaica, Germany and Senegal, which were set up to assist US global power projection. In the largest deployment, Carney recently bolstered the planned size of Canada’s troop presence in Latvia to 2,600. Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal cited NATO brigade commander, Canadian Colonel David Brassard, saying “some 35% of Canada’s entire land forces are committed to Latvia.” On a per capita basis there are as many Canadian soldiers on Russia’s border in Latvia as there are in Canada.

In total over 3,000 Canadian military personnel are stationed in eastern Europe as part of Operation REASSURANCE. Another 1,700 are part of the OUTCAN (Outside of Canada) command.

While the Canadian military has likely spent some time preparing for a possible US invasion, it is expending far more resources to assist US attacks and wars. Rather than elbows up in the corners against the USA, Carney’s government continues to pass them the puck.

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